Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
